Primary Signal: NEUTRAL
Confidence Level: 40% (Significant conflicts across timeframes, especially between short-term bearishness and a potential 4hr reversal attempt, against a dominant long-term downtrend.)
Best Timeframe: Neither for high-conviction trades. Intraday for very short-term counter-trend plays, but high risk.
Trading Recommendations:
- Intraday: No clear high-probability setup. Wait for clearer direction and signal alignment.
- Swing: Wait for better alignment. Daily and Weekly trends are still firmly bearish, making long-term bullish setups risky.
Key Signal Confluence (top 3 aligned signals, even if conflicting overall):
- 4hr MACD bullish cross (0.0023) & Histogram positive (0.000399) – Suggests short-term momentum shift.
- 4hr Supertrend Buy (1.0) & PSAR Buy (0.882) – Confirms 4hr bullish momentum attempt.
- Daily OBV rising (-13843224.0) & Weekly OBV rising (-29094849.0) – Positive volume divergence on higher timeframes, hinting at accumulation.
Risk Factors:
- Daily and Weekly long-term trends are bearish (price below SMA_50, 100, 200).
- 30min/1hr show recent bearish volume and price action (volume breakdown, price volume down, OBV falling).
- Price is currently below VWAP on Daily, 1hr, 30min.
- Weekly MACD is bearish (-0.014443 Hist).
- Daily Supertrend is sell (-1.0).
Intraday Trading Analysis
Signal Alignment Score: 40/100 (Highly mixed, leaning bearish on recent action)
Bullish Signals:
- 4hr: MACD bullish cross (0.0023) & Histogram positive (0.000399) ✓
- 4hr: Supertrend Buy (1.0) & PSAR Buy (0.882) ✓
- 30min (10:30): MACD bullish cross (0.002784) & Histogram positive (0.001916) ✓
- 1hr (11:00): MACD bullish cross (0.002910) & Histogram positive (0.001634) ✓
- 30min (10:30): Aroon Up 100.0 (strong short-term uptrend) ✓
Bearish/Neutral Signals:
- 30min (11:00): Price below SMA_5 (0.97736) ⚠️
- 1hr (11:00): Price below SMA_5 (0.97736) ⚠️
- 30min (11:00): OBV falling (-998066.0) & CMF negative (-0.0796) ⚠️
- 1hr (11:00): OBV falling (-4441254.0) & CMF negative (-0.004354) ⚠️
- 30min (11:00): Volume Above Avg & Volume Breakdown & Price Volume Down (Bearish) ⚠️
- 1hr (11:00): Volume Above Avg & Volume Breakdown & Price Volume Down (Bearish) ⚠️
- 30min (10:30): StochRSI overbought (91.10) ⚠️
- Price below VWAP on 30min (0.9837), 1hr (0.9837), Daily (0.9815) ⚠️
Intraday Trading Plan:
The intraday picture is highly conflicted. While the 4-hour chart shows a strong attempt at a bullish reversal, the most recent 30-minute and 1-hour candles indicate a significant pullback with bearish volume signals. This suggests that the immediate short-term momentum is to the downside, potentially testing recent support levels.
Given the current bearish short-term signals (falling OBV, negative CMF, volume breakdown, price below VWAP), there is no clear high-probability long setup. A short setup is also risky given the underlying 4hr bullish signals.
Best approach: WAIT. Do not initiate new intraday trades until there is clear alignment. Watch for a bounce from the 0.9702 (daily low) or 0.9513 (daily previous low) levels. If price can reclaim and hold above the 1hr VWAP (approx. \$0.9837) with increasing volume, a short-term long might be considered, but the overall trend remains challenging.
Confidence: 30% – Too much conflict for a confident intraday trade.
Swing Trading Analysis
Signal Alignment Score: 55/100 (Mixed, with long-term bearish trend dominating)
Aligned Bullish Signals:
- 4hr: MACD bullish cross (0.0023) & Histogram positive (0.000399) ✓
- 4hr: Supertrend Buy (1.0) & PSAR Buy (0.882) ✓
- 4hr: Price above SMA_5, 10, 20, 50 (0.97338, 0.9613, 0.968165, 0.968842 respectively) ✓
- Daily: MACD Histogram positive (0.009394) ✓
- Daily: OBV rising (-13843224.0) & Weekly OBV rising (-29094849.0) ✓
- Daily: CCI oversold (-1770.80) & CMO bullish cross (0.247) ✓
- Weekly: MA5 crossover (0.94548) ✓
Risk Signals:
- Daily: Downtrend (price below SMA_50, 100, 200) ⚠️
- Weekly: Downtrend (price below SMA_50, 100, 200) ⚠️
- Daily: Supertrend Sell (-1.0) ⚠️
- Weekly: Supertrend Sell (-1.0) ⚠️
- Weekly: MACD bearish histogram (-0.014443) ⚠️
- Daily: CMF negative (-0.1759) ⚠️
- Price below VWAP on Daily (0.9815) and Weekly (0.9815) ⚠️
Swing Trading Plan:
The swing trading outlook for MAPS is currently unfavorable for a long position due to the dominant bearish trend on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. While the 4-hour chart shows a promising attempt at a bullish reversal with several aligned signals (MACD, Supertrend, PSAR, price above key short-term MAs), this is occurring within a larger downtrend. The Daily and Weekly charts still show price well below their 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, and their Supertrend indicators remain bearish.
The rising OBV on Daily and Weekly is a positive divergence, suggesting potential accumulation, but it’s not enough to counter the strong trend signals.
Entry: NO ENTRY. The risk of buying into a strong downtrend is too high.
Stop: N/A
Target: N/A
Wait for clearer signs of a trend reversal on the Daily and Weekly charts. Specifically, look for the Daily price to break above its SMA_50 (1.0216) and for the Daily Supertrend to flip to a buy signal. Until then, this is a “wait and watch” situation for swing traders.
Confidence: 40% – The higher timeframe bearish trend outweighs the 4hr bullish attempt.
Signal Confluence Matrix
| Signal Type | 30m (11:00) | 1hr (11:00) | 4hr (09:30) | Daily (07/21) | Weekly (07/21) | Confluence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend (MA) | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | → (short-term ↑, long-term ↓) | ↓ | Mixed |
| Momentum (RSI) | → | → | → | → | → | Neutral |
| MACD | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ (Hist) | ↓ | Mixed |
| Volatility (ATR) | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | → | → | Mixed |
| Volume (OBV/CMF) | ↓ | ↓ | ↑ | ↑ (OBV) / ↓ (CMF) | ↑ (OBV) / ↓ (CMF) | Mixed |
| Pattern/Reversal | – | – | Bullish (PSAR, Supertrend) | Bearish (Supertrend) | Bearish (Supertrend) | Mixed |
Key Insights:
The signal confluence matrix highlights the significant divergence across timeframes. The 4-hour chart is the most bullish, showing clear signs of a potential reversal or bounce. However, the 30-minute and 1-hour charts, representing immediate price action, show a recent bearish pullback with concerning volume signals. Crucially, the Daily and Weekly timeframes remain in a clear downtrend, with price below key long-term moving averages and bearish Supertrend signals.
Strongest confluence: MACD is bullish on 30min, 1hr, 4hr, and Daily histogram, suggesting a broad momentum shift attempt.
Weakest signal: The long-term trend (Daily/Weekly MAs and Supertrend) is strongly bearish, directly conflicting with any short-term bullishness. Volume signals are also mixed, with recent short-term bearish volume.
Best opportunity: No clear A+ opportunity. The 4hr bullish signals are fighting a strong headwind from higher timeframes.
Risk Assessment & Signal Quality
Signal Strength Assessment:
- Strong Signals: Daily and Weekly long-term downtrends (price below SMA_50/100/200, Supertrend Sell).
- Moderate Signals: 4hr bullish reversal attempt (MACD cross, Supertrend Buy, PSAR Buy). Daily/Weekly OBV rising.
- Weak Signals: Intraday volume and price action (recent bearish volume breakdown, price volume down, falling OBV on 30min/1hr). Daily/Weekly CCI oversold.
When Signals Would Fail:
- Continuation of Downtrend: If the 4hr bullish signals fail to gain traction and price breaks below recent lows (e.g., 0.9702, 0.9513), confirming the daily/weekly downtrend.
- Lack of Follow-Through: If the current 30min/1hr bearish volume continues, preventing any sustained bounce from the 4hr bullish signals.
- Resistance Holds: If price approaches daily/weekly resistance levels (e.g., Daily SMA_50 at 1.0216) and gets rejected, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Quality Checks:
Signal quality is LOW-MODERATE for both intraday and swing trading. The primary reason is the severe conflict between the short-term bullish attempts (mainly 4hr) and the dominant long-term bearish trend (Daily/Weekly). This is not an A+ setup.
Red flags to watch:
- Continued low volume or bearish volume on any upward moves.
- Failure of price to reclaim and hold above the 4hr SMA_50 (0.9688) or Daily SMA_20 (0.9390).
- Any bearish cross on the 4hr MACD or flip of the 4hr Supertrend to sell.
- Price remaining below VWAP on multiple timeframes.
Actionable Trading Plan
For Intraday Traders:
Current setup: NO TRADE / WAIT
Signals are too mixed and conflicting for high-probability day trades. The recent bearish volume on 30min/1hr suggests caution.
Set alerts:
- Bullish Trigger: 1hr close above 0.9850 (above recent VWAP and 1hr SMA_5) with increasing volume. This would indicate a potential short-term bounce.
- Bearish Confirmation: 30min close below 0.9700 (today’s low). This would confirm further downside.
When signals align: Risk 0.25% per trade (reduced size) until confidence improves. Focus on quick scalps if any clear direction emerges.
For Swing Traders:
Current setup: NO TRADE / WAIT
The long-term trend is bearish, and while the 4hr chart shows a potential reversal, it’s not strong enough to counter the higher timeframe downtrend. Entering a long position here is high risk.
Wait for:
- Daily Trend Change: Daily price closing above SMA_50 (1.0216) and Daily Supertrend flipping to a buy signal.
- Weekly Confirmation: Weekly MACD histogram turning positive and price breaking above Weekly SMA_10 (0.9927).
Until these conditions are met, remain on the sidelines for swing trades.
For Both:
Next 24-48 hours critical – need to see:
- Intraday signals align with the 4hr bullish attempt (i.e., 30min/1hr volume and price action turn bullish).
- Price hold above 0.9700 (today’s low) and ideally reclaim 0.9800.
- No further bearish volume spikes on declines.
No Trade Zones:
Avoid trading if:
- Price remains stuck between 0.9700 and 0.9850 (noise zone).
- Volume remains below average or shows bearish spikes.
- Conflicting signals persist for more than 24 hours.
Signal Evolution Monitoring
Bullish Confirmation Signals:
- 30min/1hr RSI break above 60 and hold.
- Volume spike above 2x average on upward moves.
- 4hr close above 0.9986 (today’s high) with strong volume.
- Daily MACD histogram expansion and MACD line crossing above signal line.
- Daily price closing above SMA_50 (1.0216).
Bearish Invalidation Signals:
- Any timeframe RSI divergence (new highs with lower RSI, or new lows with higher RSI).
- Daily close below 0.9513 (previous daily low).
- 4hr MACD cross negative.
- 4hr Supertrend flips to sell.
- Volume spike on decline below 0.9700.
Timeline:
Next 2-3 candles on each timeframe are critical:
- 30min: Need to see a strong bullish candle close above 0.9800 within the next 1-2 hours.
- 1hr: Need a close above 0.9850 by the end of the current hour or next.
- 4hr: Must hold above its SMA_50 (0.9688) by the end of the current 4hr candle.
- Daily: Must close above 0.9759 (previous close) and ideally above 0.9800 today to show strength.
If signals don’t improve within these windows, downgrade confidence further and maintain a “no trade” stance.